Ukraine cannot retake Crimea by force, says Zelensky, in support of deals
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Ukraine cannot retake Crimea by force, says Zelensky, in support of deals

President Volodymyr Zelensky have said Ukraine could not reclaim Crimea by force, and would instead look to a diplomatic solution, as opinion polls showed growing Ukrainian public support for a negotiated settlement even at the cost of territorial concessions.

The president has said that on previous occasions Ukraine would insist on reclaiming all territory seized by Russia since 2014, including the peninsula described as “temporarily occupied” in official statements.

But Zelensky told Fox News that military conquest of the territory was not realistic.

“We cannot spend tens of thousands of our people perishing for the return of Crimea,” he said in an interview on Wednesday night, adding that his government would seek to retake it by diplomatic means and would not recognize any occupied territory as a part of Russia.

President-elect Donald Trump appears likely to pressure Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky into a tough peace deal for Kiev (Photo: Alex Kent/Getty Images)
Donald Trump appears likely to pressure Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky into a tough peace deal (Photo: Alex Kent/Getty Images)

The obvious climb follows blunt statements from Bryan Lanzawho was a senior member of Donald Trump’s the president’s campaign team, that “Crimea is gone” and Ukraine must accept a “realistic vision for peace.”

Trump’s representatives said Lanza did not speak for him. But the president-elect has criticized US aid to Ukraine and promised a quick deal to end the war – without explaining how – while military analysts believe a long, bloody and resource-intensive campaign would be required to try to retake Crimea.

Zelensky’s comments come amid signs of greater openness to territorial concessions from the Ukrainian public. A new Gallup poll this week found that 52 percent of Ukrainians favored a negotiated solution to the war, with 38 percent saying Ukraine should fight until victory, a reversal of positions found in the same poll 12 months ago.

Among supporters of a negotiated settlement, more than half of respondents said they would be open to territorial concessions to secure a deal. Among proponents of total victory, the proportion who would accept the loss of Crimea had tripled from 5 percent to 15 percent since 2023.

Support for overall victory was lowest in regions worst affected by war such as Donetsk and Kharkiv.

Oleksiy Arestovych, a former adviser to Zelensky, said in the president had bowed to the inevitable but the apparent concession would still not lead to a peace agreement.

“The main event has happened – Zelensky announced the return of Crimea by diplomatic means instead of military,” he said. “What has been obvious for almost two years has been expressed. This means a signal that his administration is accepting territorial losses, albeit temporary.”

But Arestovych added: “The dilemma is that no Ukrainian politician can agree to the recognition of the occupied territories for Russia de jure, which is what Putin wants so much. This means that a comprehensive peace agreement is practically impossible.”

“There are few options left – a ceasefire, interim peace agreements and a situation where both we and the Russian Federation consider these territories legally ours. Such situations are known in modern history – for example, Northern Cyprus.”

Ihor Lutsenko, a former Ukrainian member of parliament who now serves in the military, suggested that the West was trying to “force Ukrainian leaders to capitulate under the guise of compromise and avoid further violence.”

Any concession would cause deep divisions in Ukrainian society, he said, even if it only applies to Crimea. “There will be many disputes and no agreement on it.”

James Nixey, director of the Russia and Eurasia program at Chatham House, said territorial compromises were unlikely to lead to a peace deal.

“Russia does not want territory or territorial concessions, it wants control,” he said. “If Ukraine gives up territories – willingly or unwillingly – it will not solve the problem.”

The Kremlin believes it is winning the war and will now push for “pro-Russia neutrality” that would give it broad power over Ukraine, Nixey added.

“Russia believes it has the strategic advantage and the time to get there,” he said. “Now that Russia has started this and is going after what it thinks is rightfully its own, you don’t want piecemeal deals.”

“Small concessions will not work for Russia. Big concessions will not work for Ukraine.”