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Value Bet Tips: Saturday 26 October

1pt ew Good Earth in 2.05 Doncaster on 33/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)

1pt win The Short Go in 2.20 Cheltenham at 20/1 (Paddy Power)

1 point seaplane in 2.40 Doncaster at 16/1 (William Hill, bet365)

1pt win Ditto in 2.55 Cheltenham at 10/1 (Paddy Power, bet365)

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Take seaplane to fly home

There may not be a Derby winner lurking in this year’s William Hill Futurity Trophy Stakes but there is strength in depth to the final Group 1 of the season, and I think Doncaster will be pleased with the line-up.

James Owen’s Royal Lodge winner Wimbledon Hawkeye must top the market really on almost every metric, but he is not necessarily the one open to the most improvement, with dual all-weather winner Detain, Newmarket runner-up Royal Playwright and the equally well-bred Nebras – a half-brother to the same farm Nashwa – all seem to have a lot of potential too.

Delacroix clearly has to be respected as well given his connections and upward trajectory in pure form, but I think SEAPLANE is made of the right stuff to give them all a run for their money.

He doesn’t quite have the flashy pedigree of some of these, but you can certainly count on him to cope well with conditions underfoot still looking pretty tough on Friday afternoon and, interestingly, his half-sister Sumo Sam (by Nathaniel) produced one of her career highlights when winning the Group 2 Park Hill over a mile and three-quarters on poor ground at Doncaster.

She is not the only one in the family who has had stamina in abundance as Stag Horn, Stay Alert, Star Rock and Starfala have all been effective over the middle distances and beyond. It suggests we’re dealing with a bit of a bastard here in Seaplane, who won her maiden over seven furlongs in the Rowley Mile at Newmarket a month ago, breaking through at third time of asking after promising seconds at Leicester and Ascot previously in the year.

The Ascot race was a remarkable effort as he was far too fresh and keen (after 101 days away) through the early stages, but was still just about to be collared close to home. It gave a clear indication of the horse’s considerable engine and, with the outing behind him, the son of Golden Horn bolted up well last time when clearly enamored of the soft surface.

Still a fraction keen very early on that day, Paul and Oliver Cole have decided to put on a tongue tie for the first time, which may help calm him down when he goes up to a mile for the first time this weekend. If the oracle works and he competes even more effectively, the rest may have trouble keeping up with him, provided Billy Loughnane tries to dictate things.

He is an outsider in the field here but his sectional times from Newmarket compared favorably with the Rockfel Stakes run over the same seven furlongs earlier in the day and it is no surprise to see Timeform have him up at 117p, just a couple of pounds behind Royal Playwright and Jessie Harrington’s Beresford- winner Hotazhell, both of whom are much shorter in betting.

Coles knows the time of day with a good two-year-old and it could be significant that Seaplane is the lap’s first runner in this event since River Proud was seventh to Ibn Khaldun 17 years ago.

Jorden a solid contender at a great price

Previously at Doncaster I am keen to have GOOD SOIL running for me in the Join Century Racing Club Today Handicap.

Vespasianus is the first to catch the eye, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he bests these in time, but he lacks a fresh run which can’t be seen as a good thing given the conditions, on which the horse is completely unproven.

However, Good Earth, who receives the thick end of a rock from Crisford horse and market leader Blue Storm, is very adaptable when it comes to ground and I just think he’s been massively overlooked after a slump. -field effort when pitted against a huge draw bias (stall 18) at York earlier this month.

The first six home that day were drawn 2, 1, 5, 3, 10 and 4 and those placed higher had almost no chance of being in the finish, with Good Earth going about as well as could be expected at one point leading the group on their part of the course.

David Allan was very sensible late on and let the seven-year-old sail home and although he is actually 1lb higher here after being pushed up for his previous second to Never Dark at Hamilton, he looks like a sprinter who probably remains in top form despite forming numbers which suggests otherwise.

Despite the slight increase to an 85 rating, Good Earth is not exactly handicapped up to the finish as he won five-furlong races in 84 and 89 last year. He has won twice this time and is exactly the kind of tough, hardened fighter you want on your side as a punter at this time of year.

I also like the booking of Joanna Mason, who has a very nice strike rate (4-11) for the Michael Herrington farm and has yet to get a leg up on this one.

Don’t leave Russell’s horse out of the equation

The Masterson Holdings Hurdle is the betting race at Cheltenham but I couldn’t find a bet against Bottler’s Secret and I can happily sit back and watch Gavin Cromwell’s youngster win at a low price.

He probably would have preferred some rain in an ideal world and the same could be said of some of the runners in the Pertempts Network Handicap Hurdle too.

Dan Skelton actually had the top three (!) in antepost betting for this race on Monday and the fact that none of them have been declared shows how much of a factor the weather has had on the shape of the race, and I like the look of IDEAwhich has an excellent record on a sound surface.

He built on his promising bumper campaign with an excellent first season over hurdles, winning three times. The ground was good on two of those occasions, including comfortably landing a 15-runner handicap over the extended two miles and six furlongs at Kelso in May.

That form reads particularly well, with second and third already on the board this autumn, and Idem has also recently had a spin, finishing second with a revised score of 124 in Perth last month (replay below).

Finishing at the death after making a mistake three from home and again two out, he might well have won there, making for a nicer jumping round and one would hope he might be a bit sharper in that department second time around.

It underlined the fact that he could certainly be competitive from a mark in the 120s, and I don’t see another 3lb increase hurting his claims here, where the tough test of stamina and likely strong canter should help bring out even more the strongly traveling six-year-old.

De Bromhead outsider worth an arrow

THE SHORT GOES also looks worth a little interest under the bottom weight in the William Hill Committed To Top Prices Handicap Chase.

He’s Henry De Bromhead’s second string here, at least in the betting, but Jordan Gainford already has a couple of Cheltenham winners on his CV and they both came on the chase so I’m not reading too much into the fact that Darragh O’Keeffe probably got first dibs and joined this horse’s stablemate Senior Chief.

The Short Go obviously doesn’t need the top of the ground as he won first time out over fences in testing conditions at Clonmel last September, but he is seen more as a summer jumper and should be at home on the ground this weekend.

His jumping was a little erratic when stepping back for this three-mile trip at Kilbeggan last time, but De Bromhead’s horses almost always improve in that aspect of their game when they go and he looked like a future stayer everywhere earlier in his career.

Back after two months off here, he has won twice when fresh before and remains unexposed in the hood – as well as over the distance already mentioned – so a big race would come as no surprise.

Published at 1600 BST on 25/10/24

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