How good is Gladiator II the movie? Here’s what the betting markets are predicting
3 mins read

How good is Gladiator II the movie? Here’s what the betting markets are predicting

“Gladiator II” opens in US theaters on Friday, and traders are betting on how well the 2000 sequel will fare. Hollywood blockbuster “Gladiator” may do at the box office and in the minds of viewers.

The new film had its world premiere in Australia on October 30 and was released in the UK last week. As of Thursday evening, traders at offshore prediction platform PolyMarket gave the film a 38% chance of reaching $60-67 million in opening weekend sales.

Gladiator II poster

A view of the step-and-repeat during the Los Angeles premiere of Paramount Pictures’ “Gladiator II” at the TCL Chinese Theater on November 18, 2024 in Hollywood, California.

If “Gladiator II” reaches $65 million in domestic sales, it would be the biggest opening ever for an R-Rated film in the month of November, according to SportsCasting.

Polymarket traders see a 22% chance of the film landing somewhere between $67-75 million over the next three days, and the same chance of grossing $53-60 million. Only 10% bet the film will make less than $53 million.

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Over on US based gaming market Kalshitraders are speculating how well “Gladiator II” might perform on movie and TV review site Rotten Tomatoes based on its “Tomatometer” score.

Gladiator II movie poster scene of battles

View of signs during a ‘Gladiator II’ x ComplexCon Advanced Screening at Regal Cinebarre Palace Station on November 16, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Greg Doherty/Getty Images for Paramount Pictures/Getty Images)

The Tomatometer is determined based on the opinions of hundreds of critics, and a film is considered “fresh” if it receives 60% or more positive reviews.

As of Thursday night, “Gladiator II” had a Tomatometer score of 72%. Traders on Kalshi at the time saw a 91% chance the film would maintain a Tomatometer score above 70% on Monday, and a 44% chance the score would climb higher than 72%.

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There was only a 10% chance the film would top 75% on the Tomatometer after the weekend, which would designate it as “Certified Fresh.”

“Rotten Tomato markets are incredibly popular,” Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour told FOX Business.The Claman Countdown” last week. “People love to predict the success of a movie, and it looks like the new Gladiator is going to be incredibly successful, and people are betting on its success.”

“Gladiator II” stars Paul Mescal, Pedro Pascal, Denzel Washington, Connie Nielsen, Joseph Quinn and Fred Hechinger.

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The original “Gladiator,” which starred Russell Crowe, received 12 Oscar nominations and took home a total of five, including best picture and best actor for Crowe.

Both films were directed by Ridley Scott.