China’s world champion Ding Liren, 32, and his Indian rival Gukesh Dommaraju, at 18 the youngest ever title challenger, meet for the opening ceremony of their $2.6 million 14-game title match in Singapore on Saturday, with the first match scheduled to start at 9:00 GMT (17:00 local time) on Monday.

This will be the 50th contest for the crown since 1886, and the first where both contestants are Asian. The No. 1 player of all time was almost always a participant, but not in 2023 or 2024. Currently, Gukesh is number five in the rankings, while Ding languishes at number 23. The world champion has not won a single classic match since January. Gukesh is 1-5 odds on the favourite, while Ding is 10-3 against.

Magnus Carlsen, the game’s dominant player, who was champion for a decade until he abdicated last year, will also be in Singapore, but only as a spectator for the first few matches.

Carlsen’s take on the match: “Gukesh is a significant favourite, and if he bats first, he will win without any problems. But the longer it goes without a decisive game, the better it is for Ding, because he has the ability but lacks confidence.”

Carlsen, the world No. 1, and Fabiano Caruana, the American champion and world No. 2, also compete in Singapore, in a two-game mini-match on Nov. 21-22 in Freestyle Chess, where the formation of pieces on the back ranks is randomized. Carlsen leads with 1-0. A five-tournament Freestyle Tour has been announced for 2025, with a prize fund of $750,000 for each event.

Carlsen has been comfortable with his decision to throw away his classic title and its required months of preparation every two years. He successfully defended it four times, continues to be the best in the world in rapid and blitz, and has a secure place at the pinnacle of chess history alongside or ahead of Garry Kasparov and Bobby Fischer.

The result of Ding v Gukesh will hinge on whether Ding, who has not played in public since August, can regain some of the strength he had before and leading up to winning the title. Ding would have been the favorite in his pre-pandemic form until 2019, when he was impeccably solid. His 100-game unbeaten run in 2017-18 was a record at the time, although it has since been surpassed by Carlsen’s 125. He was also creative and imaginative, which was shown in this week’s puzzle.

Ding previously earned a law degree at Peking University, but the pandemic severely affected his chess career. He was caught up in prolonged lockouts in his hometown of Wenzhou, and it affected his results when he resumed playing. He took several months out of chess in 2023 due to mental illness, and his lack of form in 2024 has been characterized by hesitancy at critical moments.

When Ding faced Gukesh in the Sinquefield Cup in August he chose 20 Bd3, then sacrificed bishop and rook for eternal control, rather than the obvious 20 Re1, which brought another piece into the attack and was favored by the computer. In other 2024 games, such hesitations turned favorable positions into defeats.

Despite the many negative omens, Ding leads his individual head to head against Gukesh in classic games, with two wins, one draw as shown above and no losses. On Wijk aan Zee in JanuaryDing scored a minus point, but one of his two wins was against Gukesh.

In a pre-match Fide interview, Ding acknowledged his poor current form, but argued that match and tournament play “are two different things. When a player starts to hit their stride, how the opponent reacts depends on their experience and how they handle the situation at the moment”. Ding was also the underdog in his 2023 title match with Ian Nepomniachtchi, but won in tie-breaks with the help of his fellow, Hungary’s Richard Rapport, who is likely to be in Ding’s corner again in Singapore.

How does Ding rate his chances? “My current state is neither exceptionally good nor bad, but I’ve definitely gone past the worst moments in the last year and a half. I know I’ve played good chess – I just couldn’t convert some positions. I think I can turn that round, maybe during the match.

Gukesh Dommaraju, the son of an ear, nose and throat surgeon and a microbiologist, learned chess at the age of seven and developed into a child prodigy. He became Grandmaster at 12 years, seven months, the third youngest in history, but there was also a controversial incident in Bangkok 2018 when Nigel Short, two pawns up, forgot to press the bell and Gukesh jumped up to celebrate the flag drop. Gukesh was a very active player in his teenage years and advanced rapidly. He was the third youngest in history to pass a 2700 rating, the youngest to pass 2750. and was easily able to reach 2800 during the world championship match.

Gukesh will stick with Grzegorz Gajewski as his head coach. The Pole, 39, helped him at last year’s Candidates, where his calm strategy of halving his main rivals and scoring well towards the tail paid off at the end as he edged Caruana and Nepomniachtchi by a crucial half-point.

Vishy Anand, India’s first world champion, has been Gukesh’s mentor for many years and is normally expected to be available for advice during the match, but Anand is also Fide’s vice-president, so he must remain neutral.

Gukesh is confident that he can handle the match decisions as they unfold. “I’ve played in a lot of high-pressure situations.” He is also unconcerned about the time needed for computer preparation, a factor in Carlsen’s abdication.

“It’s a new experience for me. It’s hard work, but I’m enjoying it, so let’s see how things develop”. He also believes that his age will prove to be an advantage: “I have more energy levels and it’s easier to stay focused during long tournaments.”

The preparations are almost over: who will win? I expect Gukesh to be cautious in the early games and then probe and push hard in the mid-game. Ding’s form in 2024 has been so poor that it is difficult to see how he will be able to retain his title. A margin of 7.5-4.5 for Gukesh looks about right.

Who do Guardian readers think will win? Let us know in the comments section.

3947 1…Ne5+!! If 2 Nxe5 Bf5+ 3 Kh5 Kg8/g7+ 4 Bh6 Ng3 mate. If 2 Kh4 Kg8+! 3 Nxh8 Bxg5 mate.