BYU and Arizona State square off in this critical late-season Big 12 matchup on Saturday. Let’s check out the latest prediction for the game from an expert analytical football model that projects points and picks winners.

BYU is no longer undefeated after dropping its first game of the season, at home to Kansas, but remains in control of its destiny when it comes to making Big 12 play.

Arizona State took a big step against Arlington last week after taking out Kansas State, moving into third place in the conference and could take another big step this weekend.

What do the analytics models suggest for when the Cougars and Sun Devils meet in this Big 12 clash?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how BYU and Arizona State compare in this Week 13 college football matchup.

So far, the models are siding with the Cougars to avoid a second loss, but by a very good margin.

SP+ predicts BYU to defeat Arizona State by a projected score of 27 to 25 and to win the game by an expected margin of 2.4 points in the process.

The model gives the Cougars a nearly 56 percent chance of outright victory over the Sun Devils.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most durable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is this season? So far, the SP+ model is 315-293-8 against the spread with a 51.8 winning percentage after going 23-30 (43.4%) last weekend.

Arizona State is a 3.5-point favorite against BYU, according to the updated lines posted on FanDuel Sportsbook for the game.

FanDuel put the total at 48.5 points for the game (Over -108, Under -112).

And it lists the money odds for Arizona State at -152 and for BYU at +126 to win outright.

If you use this prediction to bet on the game, you should take…

If you do, you’ll be in the company of a small majority of players who believe the Cougars have upset potential against the Sun Devils, according to the latest consensus picks for the game.

BYU gets 56 percent of the bets to either win the game outright in an upset and avoid a second loss, or to keep the final margin under 4 points in defeat.

The other 44 percent of bets project Arizona State will win the game and cover the narrow line.

BYU enters the game ranked No. 10 nationally in scoring margin, averaging 10.3 points better than the competition when scoring totals this season.

Arizona State has outscored opponents by 8 points on average so far in 2024.

These margins have shifted over the last three games.

BYU has played much closer games during that time, averaging 3.3 points better than opponents, while Arizona State has improved to 11.7 points better than the competition during that time.

And these numbers grow further apart when you consider the location.

BYU has been outscored by an average of 8.6 points on the road this season, while Arizona State has been outscored by 12.8 points at home.

Other analytical soccer models have a different view of how the game turns out.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Arizona State is its favorite in the game, coming out ahead in a majority 55.9 percent of the computer’s latest simulations of the matchup.

That leaves BYU as the presumptive winner in the remaining 44.1 percent of sims.

How does that translate to an expected margin of victory in the game?

Arizona State is projected to be 2.1 points better than BYU on the same field in both teams’ current makeups, according to the model’s latest projection.

If so, that would still mean punters taking BYU +3.5 since the Sun Devils wouldn’t cover in this scenario.

When: Sat 23 November
Where: Tempe, Ariz.

Time: 13:30 Berg
TV: ESPN Network

–

Game odds are updated regularly and may change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and would like help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

–

More college football from SI: Top 25 rankings | Schedule | Law

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Ranking | Choice