Bank Japanese Governor Kazuo Ueda gave the clearest hint yet that the central bank’s next monetary policy meeting will involve a direct discussion of whether to raise interest rates.

“It is impossible to predict the outcome of the meeting at this point,” Ueda said in response to questions at a Europlace forum in Tokyo on Thursday (Nov 21). “The next meeting is December, but there is still a month to go. The vast amount of data and information will become available between now and then.”

With the remark, Ueda avoided boxing himself into a rate hike in December while leaving his options open. He has repeatedly said that tariff decisions will be made at each meeting and not in advance.

Still, the comments highlight the risk of a rate hike in four weeks, which was expected by about half of economists polled last month. More than 80% of BOJ watchers polled expect a move in January.

Market participants expect the BOJ to give a clearer signal ahead of an interest rate hike than it did in July. A rate hike at the time blindsided some investors and was seen as contributing to a market meltdown in August.

The Europlace speech was seen as an unlikely meeting place for a major steering of the BOJ’s next policy decision. The governor spoke largely about the challenges facing the financial services industry as it faces technological advances.

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A speech in Nagoya earlier this week seemed a much more likely opportunity for Ueda to telegraph a move if he intended to do so. In Monday’s speech, Ueda noted the outlook for the global economy and the virtuous cycle of wage inflation as two key points for the next policy decision.

In response to a question on Thursday, he reiterated that the bank will “seriously” assess the impact of foreign exchange rates on inflation and the economy. The yen is seen as a prime catalyst for Ueda’s departure by many BOJ watchers. The currency has weakened in recent weeks to increase inflationary pressure via higher import costs.

Some economists say continued yen weakness even after direct currency intervention in July was a key factor behind the BOJ’s move that month. The government has already spent more than US$100 billion to support the yen so far this year.

A rate hike could provide some support for Japan’s weak currency and relief for the government, but Ueda will also need to keep an eye on political developments.

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s ruling coalition no longer has a majority in parliament. December is a key month for the government to compile next year’s budget. Some economists wonder whether the bank could raise interest rates at a critical time for fiscal policy, when the government needs help from a smaller party that opposes short-term rate hikes. BLOOMBERG