Most exit polls on Wednesday predicted a win for the ruling NDA in Maharashtra while giving it an edge over the incumbent JMM-led INDIA Bloc in Jharkhand.

Four of the seven exit polls said the incumbent BJP-Shiv Sena-NCP combine would retain power in the country’s richest state while three predicted a hung house. No one predicted a win for the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi comprising the Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT) and NCP (SP) in Maharashtra.

In Jharkhand, of the six exit polls, three gave a clear advantage to the NDA, with Axis My India the only one predicting the JMM-led alliance’s win. Two of these six polls said Jharkhand voters could leave a hung verdict.

In Maharashtra, the average of seven polls put the ruling Mahayuti over 150 seats in a 288-seat house where 145 is a simple majority, while giving 126 to the opposition INDIA bloc.

Chanakya Strategies (152-160), Matrize (150-170), Times Now-JVC (150-167) and People’s Pulse (175-195) gave the NDA a clear victory in Maharashtra. However, P Marq, Lokshahi and Dainik Bhaskar said the sentence should be hung.

In Jharkhand, where the incumbent Chief Minister Hemant Soren-led INDIA coalition faced a stiff electoral challenge from the BJP that made alleged illegal immigration into the tribal land a key election issue, even vowing to identify and deport every infiltrator, four out of six exit surveys for an NDA win. In the chamber of 81 members, the simple majority is 41.

Matrize gave NDA seats in the range of 42 and 47; Chanakya Strategies 45-50; People’s Pulse 44-53 and Times Now-JVC 40-44. Axis My India stuck its neck out to say that the incumbents would retain Jharkhand. That gave the NDA 25 seats and the JMM-led ruling bloc 53. Dainik Bhaskar and P Marq predicted a hung house in Jharkhand with the BJP contesting 68 seats and its ally All Jharkhand Students Union 10; JD-U 2 and LJP 1.

On the ruling side, JMM contested 41, Congress 30, RJD 6 and CPI (ML) 4.

In Maharashtra, the fate of several top leaders – Uddhav Thackeray of the Shiv Sena (UBT), his ex-colleague and CM Eknath Shinde, NCP (SP) chief Sharad Pawar and his nephew Ajit Pawar of the NCP, and Deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis – is at stake .

In 2019, the BJP had contested 164 seats and won 105, giving the highest strike rate of any party in the state. The undivided Shiv Sena polled 124 and won 56. However, the Shiv Sena split over the prime ministership and its leader Uddhav forged a post-poll alliance with Sharad Pawar’s undivided NCP and the Congress to form the government, which fell when Shinde split the Sena. Soon Ajit Pawar also headed a vertical division in the NCP.

Congress in-charge of Maharashtra Ramesh Chennithala dismissed the exit polls and exuded confidence in an MVA victory. Even overall, Congress boycotted exit poll debates, citing a lack of credibility in the data. Most exit pollsters had eaten their words on the latest Haryana poll results. The majority prediction was a Congress win, but the BJP ended up with a hat-trick.