The deadline looms for negotiators seeking a cash deal to curb global warming
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The deadline looms for negotiators seeking a cash deal to curb global warming

BAKU, Azerbaijan (AP) — With time running down, negotiators at the annual U.N. climate talks Wednesday remained mired in the maze of a trillion-dollar problem, turning to host Azerbaijan to lead the way toward daylight with a promised map to be released in the darkness of the night.

Vulnerable nations seek $1.3 trillion to deal with damage from climate change and to adapt to that changeincluding building out their own clean energy systems. Experts agree that at least $1 trillion is required, but both figures are much more than the developed world has so far offered.

Negotiators are fighting over three major parts of the issue: How big the numbers are, how much is the grant or loan, and who is contributing.

After 10 days of talks, the talks’ host presidency, called COP29, promised a draft proposal around midnight local time, which they acknowledged will be far from final and has many decisions to make. But it is something, a clear step forward, said negotiator Yelchin Rafiyev.

Pressure on the Presidency

Late on Wednesday afternoon, German special climate envoy Jennifer Morgan assumed responsibility for the COP29 presidency.

“A lot is really now in the hands of the presidency and the options that they’re going to put in front of us, the text that’s going to come out,” Morgan said. “I think the options can help move us onto the fast track to a green and prosperous future or immerse us in a battle for the lowest common denominator.”

And the key to a solution is one word, Morgan said: Trust.

“The most critical currency right now is trust — trust in the presidency and and trust between and across parties,” Morgan said. “And what this means in practice is a lot of shuttle diplomacy, a lot of meetings between negotiating teams.”

Negotiators convey some progress, but talks go in ‘circles’

At a session where ministers reported on their progress on Wednesday, Australia’s climate minister Chris Bowen – one of the ministers leading talks on the money target – said he had heard different proposals about how much money should be in the pot. In addition to the $1.3 trillion proposed by developing countries, nations proposed figures of $900 billion, $600 billion and $440 billion, he said.

Diego Pacheco Balanza, president of the negotiating bloc of like-minded developing countries, said the group also heard a figure of $200 billion in negotiating corridors. It is not enough, he said. “Developed countries whose legal obligations it is to provide financing continue to shift their responsibility to developing countries,” Pacheco Balanza said.

Asked for his response to the $200 billion proposal, Adonia Ayebare, chairman of the G77 plus China negotiating group, asked: “Is it a joke?” Speaking to a room of reporters, he added that negotiations need a headline of $1.3 trillion. “I used to be in the press, I know the headline is important,” he said.

But European climate envoy Wopke Hoekstra said “it’s important to first establish the elements so you can have an informed conversation about what an aspirational and also realistic number might be.”

Elsewhere, there seemed to be some positivity in working through other issues at the talks.

South Africa’s climate minister Dion George – one of two ministers leading talks on how to reduce planet-warming fossil fuels – said “all parties reaffirmed their commitment to deliver on the Dubai Consensus reached last year” when countries pledged to transition from fossil fuels.

Morgan said 150 nations are working “to get over the vocal but isolated minority trying to block progress on” reducing heat-trapping emissions and weaning the world off fossil fuels.

And New Zealand’s climate minister Simon Watts was also “very encouraged” by movement on the so-called Article 6a proposal to reduce emissions by e.g. a system of carbon credits which allows nations to pollute if they offset emissions elsewhere.

But much still remained to be resolved.

Alden Meyer of the European think tank E3G summed up the state of negotiations on Wednesday by saying that the word of the day at the talks is “circle … like going around in circles.”

The delegates feel both frustration and hope

Juan Pablo Hoffmaister of the Environmental Defense Fund said the “frustration is palpable” as time runs out.

Hoffmaister, who is a former negotiator for developing countries, said that while potential climate finance targets are finally out, it remains unclear how they will be delivered – loans, grants or other means. “We have to fix this in the next 72 hours,” he said.

Italy’s special envoy for climate change, Francesco Corvaro, said the negotiations feel like they are moving in the right direction, but that it will likely take extra time to reach an agreement. “We cannot fail,” he said. But he stressed that Europe does not have the capacity to cover the costs of climate finance alone.

Ali Mohamed, chairman of the African Group of Negotiators said he hopes “that our partners will come forward with a justified number that will meet the needs and scale of the growing problems of climate change.”

Mohamed said there is a clear obligation for developed countries to support poorer countries but “until now we don’t seem to have a number,” he said, expressing frustration at the slow progress.

Rizwana Hasan, adviser to the Bangladesh government on environment and climate change, also criticized developed countries at a press conference, saying “the global North and the major emitters still lack the sense of urgency and real commitment” to curbing climate change.

But, she said, there is reason to maintain confidence in the process. “You can’t give up hope,” she said. “Giving up hope is pointless.”

UN chief says success lies in the hands of rich nations

Meanwhile, half a world away in Rio, Brazil, where the Group of 20 summit concluded on Tuesday, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres told the group of the world’s largest economies that “the success of COP29 is largely in your hands.”

“That goal, the financial goal, in its various layers, must meet the needs of developing countries, starting with a significant increase in concessional public funds,” he said.

And the President of Brazil, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, said developed countries should consider moving their 2050 emissions targets forward to 2040 or 2045.

“The G20 accounts for 80% of greenhouse gas emissions,” he said. “Even if we don’t go at the same speed, we can all take one more step.”

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