TOKYO – The political obituaries are already being written for what could well be Japan’s shortest post-war premiership, if the outcome is swift announced snap election on 27 October does not favor Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and his ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).

But it wasn’t meant to be like this. Mr Ishiba, 67, had for years topped the public’s choice for prime minister, and is set to enjoy a “honeymoon period” after takes office on 1 October.

Yet he now finds himself on the verge of rewriting a record currently held by Prince Naruhiko Higashikuni, Japan’s postwar prime minister who resigned after 54 days in 1945, having rolled the dice in a general election a year ahead of schedule.

If that ends up being the case, Mr. Ishiba and his aides appear to have misjudged public anger over a political slush fund scandal, where dozens of LDP lawmakers kept the money off the books.

His government approval rating was between 28 and 41 percent, according to various media polls last week, which was generally lower than when he became prime minister.

Media polls, including by the center-right Yomiuri Shimbun, have also suggested the LDP and its coalition partner Komeito could struggle to win a simple majority of 233 seats in the 465-seat lower house. Mr Ishiba has set 233 seats as his baseline target, a modest target considering the ruling bloc had 279 seats in the dissolved lower house.

Not that public anger was palpable in Mr. Ishiba’s penultimate campaign rally appearance on Oct. 26, when he bumped into former Olympic minister Tamayo Marukawa in a sardine-filled square in front of Tokyo’s Ebisu Station.

Marukawa is a veteran upper house lawmaker who is vying for a seat in the lower house for the first time. But polls show she risks losing in Tokyo’s No. 7 district, which includes Tokyo’s Minato and Shibuya wards.

She was required to keep 8.2 million yen (S$71,300) off the books and had, often during 12 days of campaigning, shed tears of remorse and apology as dignitaries such as Mrs. Akie Abe, the widow of the late former prime minister Shinzo Abe, appeared up to campaign for her.

But the question is whether Mr Ishiba and Ms Marukawa were preaching to the choir at the October 26 meeting where many in the crowd appeared to be LDP supporters.

Mr. Ishiba did not mention the slush fund scandal. Instead, he spoke extensively about Japan’s economic and population decline. He said Marukawa, a mother of a 12-year-old boy, was best poised to bring different perspectives to politics.

“Japan used to be the world’s most competitive country, but it has now dropped to 38th in international competitiveness,” Ishiba said, referring to the International Institute for Management Development’s annual World Competitiveness Ranking.

“Japan once accounted for 20 percent of the global economy, but now accounts for only 4 percent,” he added, urging voters to trust the LDP’s leadership experience for a brighter future.

However, this argument cut no ice with Mr Ryo Sugino, 32, who briefly stopped to listen to the rally on his way home.

The chief of staff said the LDP had largely been in charge for the past 30 years during which Japan’s economy stagnated.

“I can’t feel confident in entrusting Japan’s economic future to the LDP. But I also don’t feel confident in an opposition that has only criticized the government without coming up with concrete policy ideas,” said the undecided voter, who added that he felt himself “given up (roughly) and not surprised” by the slush fund scandal.