Gulf states’ reluctance to allow use of its airspace could delay Israel’s strike on Iran
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Gulf states’ reluctance to allow use of its airspace could delay Israel’s strike on Iran

Israel’s long-awaited attack on Iran takes longer than expected because Israel has had to consider complying with warnings from Arab Gulf states not to use its airspace in the attack, sources told Middle East Eye on Friday.

Israel’s war planning now takes into account its jet fighters taking a circuitous route around the Persian Gulf to attack Iran, an operation that would require extensive mid-air refueling, a current and two former senior US officials told MEE on condition of anonymity.

Iran has been vocal about what it says is the Gulf states’ reluctance to help Israel. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Tuesday that Tehran has secured one promise from neighboring countries to not allow their “land or airspace” to be used in any attack, as it stands for Israel’s retaliation against its missile attack.

“All our neighbors have assured us that they will not allow their land or airspace to be used against the Islamic Republic of Iran,” Araghchi said on Tuesday.

The Israeli Air Force showed off its F-35s performing mid-air refueling with KC-707 Boeing Tankers last month during an attack on the Houthi-controlled port of Hodeidah in Yemen.

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Along with distance covered, the amount of fuel needed for a bombing mission is determined by the type of aircraft used and the weight and type of ammunition it carries.

A former senior US defense official told MEE that if Israel were to fly over the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea to strike Iran, it would require at least four to five aerial refueling operations.

“The long distance from Israel to Iran creates logistical challenges for aerial refueling,” Bradly Bowman, senior director of the Center on Military and Political Power at the Foundation For Defense of Democracies, told MEE.

“If the timidity of some Arab capitals requires Israel to adjust its war plans, it is a diplomatic success for Iran,” he added.

The Middle East has been on a knife edge awaiting Israel’s retaliation for an Iranian ballistic missile attack on its territory earlier this month. The sense of anticipation was further fueled by what the US says each leak by top-secret US intelligence detailing Israel’s preparations for the attack. The FBI is now investigating the leak.

The documents, which circulated late last week on Telegram, indicate that Israel’s preparations for an attack include the use of two types of air-launched ballistic missiles identified as Golden Horizon and Rocks missiles.

Defense experts who spoke to MEE said the Golden Horizon missiles are part of the so-called Israeli-produced Sparrow family of missiles and the Rocks missiles belong to a similar group. The Sparrow family of air-launched missiles have a range of up to 2,000 kilometers and are believed to have been used by Israel in its April strike on Iran’s S-300 air defense system.

Israel’s air route options for attacking Iran

Israel’s limited attack on Iran, which blinded US, was believed by analysts to have been fired outside Iran’s airspace due to missile wreckage identified inside Iraq.

The April strike underscores that Israel can attack Iran by avoiding the airspace of close US allies and sending its warplanes over Lebanon, Syria and Iraq. But a former senior US defense official told MEE that the alternative route has its own complications for Israel, given the kind of large-scale attack it appears to be planning.

“Israel doesn’t like going over Syria because it exposes them to Russian radar that will give the Iranians early warning,” the source said. “On the other hand, an attack via the Arabian Sea would expose Israel.

“The further you go, the greater the risks. That is not something Israel wants to do”.

Israeli warplanes have dominated the skies over Syria since Israel began bombing Iranian-linked targets there following the Syrian civil war.

Since October 7, Israel has enjoyed relative freedom in Lebanon’s airspace. But a direct attack on Iran would have a different scope and comes at a time when Russia has moved closer to the Islamic Republic, including by providing intelligence to the Houthis in Yemen, MEE reported for an earlier story.

The safest and easiest route for Israel to launch an air-to-surface missile attack on Iran is across the Persian Gulf.

On Friday, the US announced it was deploying additional F-16 fighter jets to the region, ahead of what current and former US officials say the MEE is ahead of Israel’s impending attack on Iran.

Iran sent tankers back to key oil facilities in a sign it believes an Israeli attack had been repelled

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The US has not said where the jets were deployed. The closest US air base to Israel is Azraq in Jordan. But the US has a series of bases across the Gulf, closer to Iran.

Saudi Arabia’s Prince Sultan Air Base is Home to the US 378th Air Expeditionary Wing, which operates F-16 and F-35 jet fighters. The US operates MQ-9 Reaper drones and jet fighters from the UAE’s al-Dhafra airbase.

Kuwait’s Ali al-Salem Air Base is home to the 386th Air Expeditionary Wing, and Qatar’s al-Udeid Air Base hosts the regional headquarters of US Central Command.

It is not the first time that Arab states in the Gulf have tried to distance themselves from the tensions between Israel and Iran.

Following Iran’s first ever direct attack on Israel in response to the bombing of its consulate in Damascus, Syria, MEE exclusively revealed that the Gulf states resisted US pleas to use their airspace and air bases to defend Israel.

Iran has also been involved in a game of virtual checkmate, with Israel trying to narrow its potential list of targets by vowing to retaliate against any attack on its energy or nuclear infrastructure with similar attacks.

Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi promised retaliation against any Israeli attack.

“We closely monitor the movements of the US bases in the region and are aware of all their movements and flights,” he said, adding, “If Israel attacks Iran in any form, Iran will respond in the same format”.