Elections in Uttar Pradesh (UP) are becoming bipolar and are now being fought between two coalitions led by the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Samajwadi Party (SP), forcing smaller parties to ride on either of the two ideological combinations, which have vertical divided the state. Since 2014, a resurgent BJP and the steadfast SP have been on a growth trajectory, both in vote share and seats, in both the Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha elections.

While the BJP suffered a setback in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls where its individual tally fell from 62 in 2019 to 33, but in terms of vote percentage, it still led the pack with 41.37% votes with SP (without allies) trailing with 33.59% and win 37 seats. Certainly, in bipolar elections a high vote share is not always reflected in the number of seats.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the alliance with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) cost the SP dearly as its vote share fell to 18.11% and five seats, but the party made a quick recovery in the 2022 assembly polls, securing 32% votes and winning 111 seats while The BJP created a history of sorts with Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath winning a second consecutive term, a feat achieved till then, only by Sampurnanand in 1957. BJP’s vote share increased from 39.7% to 41.3% but the number of seats fell from 312 to 255.

Take, for example, the recent nine seat polls. Although the BSP also fielded candidates, it failed to mark its presence in what turned out to be a direct battle between the BJP and the SP. Neither Mayawati nor her nephew Akash Anand campaigned for the polls, leaving the candidates to fend for themselves.

The loss of confidence in the BSP is evident in the Katehri assembly segment of the Ambedkarnagar Lok Sabha constituency, thrice represented by Mayawati in 1998, 1999 and 2004. The SP MP, whose wife contested the polls on an SP ticket, also as a BJP candidate was a once strong pillars of the BSP. They switched loyalties after the BSP lost political ground. Here again, Mayawati made no effort to reverse the decline in fortunes.

Regardless of the outcome, the SP fought the election battle on two fronts – one on the ground and the other on social media, bombarding the platforms with pictures and videos of police officers preventing Muslim voters, especially women, from casting their votes. A clip of a policeman pulling out his gun and stopping women voters from going to the polling station went viral. The BJP held press conferences, albeit late, to counter the allegations with its statements about fake voting by people wearing burqas to hide their identities.

Bipolarity of polls

Interestingly, most of the smaller political parties have already joined the NDA or INDIA, and both have also stuck to their allies – the BJP has carefully stitched together caste-based alliances represented by Apna Dal (Kurmi), Nishad Party and Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party ( Rajbhar), ignoring their leader’s mercurial temperament.

Similarly, the SP has remained in the Congress with their leaders Akhilesh Yadav and Rahul Gandhi bridging differences. It was no easy task, given the SP’s anti-Congress antecedents and the Congress party’s desire to revive the party in a state it had ruled until the late 1980s.

Some notable parties, which have not allied with either of the two formations are – BSP, Azad Samaj Party (Kanshi Ram) of Bhim Army founder Chandrashekhar Azad, which made a maiden entry into the Lok Sabha in 2024; AIMIM for Asaduddin Owaisi; Jansatta Dal (Loktantrik) of Raghuraj Pratap Singh aka Raja Bhaiya which continues to hold influence over voting patterns in constituencies in and around his home district of Pratapgarh.

The BSP has ruled the state four times but has been on the decline mainly due to its leader Mayawati’s inactivity since 2014. A party that once dreamed of giving the country its first Dalit prime minister has been unable to hold on to its committed core constituency of SC/ST voters with other supporters also abandoning the BSP. It had failed to win even a seat in the Lok Sabha despite getting 10 points in 2019 and could win only one seat in a 403-member UP Vidhan Sabha in 2022, ceding the opposition space entirely to the SP. Today, the BSP is seen more as a B-team in the BJP than a party that politically empowered the Dalits, who are now in huge demand every election.

As the BSP becomes redundant, its disillusioned core voters (Dalits) have been on the move and exploring alternatives. When the Constitution became an explosive issue in 2024, Dalits, experts said, felt that Mayawati had failed them; they moved to INDIA. Ideologically they are willing to ride the Hindutva bandwagon but socially they distrust the Brahmins and Thakurs. Thus SP’s PDA formula (Pichra, Dalit and Alpasankhyak) appeals to them as they have no qualms about returning to the Congress.

On the other hand, SP chief Yadav has sent the right political signals by fielding prominent Dalit leaders even from unreserved constituencies. But socially, SP has to ensure bonhomie between Yadavs and Dalits who have traditionally been antagonistic to each other.

Bipolarity is not limited to surveys but has filtered down to caste and social alliances as well. Together, SP and Congress are reconstructing the formidable troika of Dalits, Brahmins and Muslims. The Brahmins’ first choice is the BJP, though they selectively vote for the alliance. On the other hand, BJP is desperate to reunite its Hindu vote bank, but SP’s PDA campaign has proved to be a major roadblock despite various welfare schemes launched for the poor and RSS schemes in Dalit and backward areas.

Eventually SP took on an aggressive BJP and managed to win three seats – one less than their 2022 tally. The BJP had won three, the Nishad Party one and the Rashtriya Lok Dal one.