The Election Commission provisionally recorded voter turnout for the Maharashtra polls at 65% compared to 61.74% in 2019. | Photo credit: ANI

With 45% of the votes included Maharashtraearly trends suggest that the Mahayuti alliance has managed to reverse its setbacks in the “poor” and the “very poor” districts of the state that faced the 2024 general elections. Moreover, it has not only managed to maintain its lead in the “very rich” and the ‘rich’ districts of the state but has also made significant progress in the areas compared to its performance earlier this year in the Lok Sabha elections.

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For the purpose of this analysis, the districts of Maharashtra were divided into five economic groups – very poor, poor, middle, rich and very rich – based on their per capita Net District Domestic Product (NDDP) at current prices in 2022-23. Districts in the “very rich” category had a per capita NDDP of over INR 3 lakh; those in the ‘rich’ category had a per capita NDDP of ₹2.4 lakh-₹2.9 lakh; those in the “intermediate” category had a per capita NDDP of ₹2 lakh-₹2.3 lakh; those in the ‘poor’ category had a per capita NDDP of ₹1.5 lakh-₹1.9 lakh; and those in the ‘very poor’ category had a per capita NDDP below 1 lakh.

In the districts categorized as “very poor”, the Mahayuti alliance secured 47.6% of the votes in the 2024 assembly polls, an increase of 7.1 percentage points over the 2024 general election. Similarly, in the ‘poor’ districts of the state, the alliance has secured over 48% of the votes, showing an increase of 5.6 percentage points over its Lok Sabha performance. However, the MVA alliance has suffered major setbacks in the “poor” and the “very poor” districts of the state, where it had secured more votes than the Mahayuti alliance in the Lok Sabha elections earlier. For example, its vote share has declined by 10 percentage points in the “very poor” districts and by over 13 points in the “poor” districts of the state.

The conclusions are based on the 45% of votes counted in the state. The copy will be updated after more votes are counted.

Table 1:The table shows the share of votes (in %) secured by the different alliances in the five types of districts: very rich, rich, medium, very poor and poor in the 2024 assembly polls and the change from the 2024 general election (in percentage points)

Observations from the table:

• The Mahayuti alliance retains its lead in the “very rich” and “wealthy” districts of the state after securing over 50% of the votes. The Alliance’s biggest increases in vote share were noted in the poor, very poor and intermediate districts.

• MVA has suffered a decrease in vote share in all types of districts.

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Table 2: The table shows the seats (in numbers) led by the various alliances across the five types of districts: very rich, rich, medium, very poor and poor in the 2024 assembly polls and the change from the 2024 general election

Observations from the table:

• The Mahayuti alliance has increased its number of seats by 24 in the “poor” category and by 12 in the “very poor” category in the 2024 assembly polls, compared to the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

• It has secured a remarkable 52 seats in the “intermediate” category, marking a massive increase of 27 seats compared to the 2024 general election

• MVA has failed to increase its number of seats in any type of district

Why focus on “poor” and “very poor”?

An earlier analysis of vote shares secured by Mahayuti and MVA in the 2024 general elections shows that the richer districts supported Mahayuti, while the poorer sections were behind MVA. The MVA secured 44-45% of the votes in the “poor” and “very poor” districts compared to the 38-41% the Mahayuti coalition got in the Lok Sabha polls. In the wealthier districts, MVA secured fewer votes.

Mahayuti managed to reverse the trend in the 2024 assembly polls by securing more votes than the MVA alliance in all types of districts.