The Detroit Lions just keep winning — and they’re doing so in dominant fashion — heading into a Week 12 matchup with the Indianapolis Colts.

The Colts are fresh off a huge win against the New York Jets in Anthony Richardson’s return to the lineup.

However, the oddsmakers have Richardson and company as 7.5-point underdogs at home in this matchup.

Can Dan Campbell’s Lions cover the spread?

Using the latest odds and analysis, I try to predict the final result of this matchup, which will hopefully give punters an idea of ​​which side – or overall – to bet on Sunday.

Odds via DraftKing’s Sportsbook.

Spread

Moneyline

Total

The Lions are 8-2 against the spread this season, winning games by an average margin of 15.9 points per game. Meanwhile, the Colts are 2-1 against the spread as a home handicap so far in 2024.

SI Betting’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan is on the UNDER in this game, as he thinks the Lions could be due for some regression on offense. He broke down why in his Road to 272 – where he bets every NFL game, every week:

The Lions have averaged 33.6 points per game this season, which might lead you to believe that their 9-1 record is due to their offense, but I would argue that it has been their defense that has been more impressive. Detroit’s defense ranks second in the NFL in opponent EPA per game and they are allowing just 17.7 points per game on the season.

A total should only be in the 50s if it’s a game that features two teams whose offense is significantly better than their defense and I just don’t think that’s the case here. While the argument could be made for the Lions, it has been objectively true that the Colts’ defense has been much better than their offense. Their offense is 22nd in EPA per game but 11th in opponent EPA per game.

The Indianapolis defense isn’t elite but they are above average in almost every measure and don’t deserve to be in a game that has a total set in the 50s. I think playing an uncharacteristically slow game is in the cards for the Lions offense.

While MacMillan has some confidence in the Colts’ defense, I’m concerned that Richardson will be able to put together another big offensive show.

The young quarterback is still completing just 48.5 percent of his passes, and the Lions have been red-hot on offense. If they continue to score at a high rate, I don’t think the Colts are efficient enough to keep up.

Final score prediction: Lions 27, Colts 19

The odds are updated periodically and may change.

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