Oreshnik’s missile attack on Dnipro does not indicate a risk of the use of nuclear weapons
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Oreshnik’s missile attack on Dnipro does not indicate a risk of the use of nuclear weapons

Neither Oreshnik’s ballistic missile strike nor Vladimir Putin’s statement on November 21 represents a significant change in Russian attack capability or the likelihood of using a nuclear weapon.

This is stated in a report from Institute for the Study of War (ISW), according to Ukrinform.

On November 21, Russian President Vladimir Putin stepped up his reflexive control campaign against Ukraine and its Western partners by launching a flamboyant ballistic missile strike against Ukraine that used multiple re-entry vehicles.

Putin explicitly threatened that Russia might attack Western countries that support Ukrainian deep strikes in Russia and rhetorically linked the November 21 strike to Russian nuclear weapons capabilities.

“Putin’s Nov. 21 statement shows that Moscow’s constant saber-rattling remains largely rhetorical. Neither Oreshnik’s ballistic missile strike nor Putin’s Nov. 21 statement represents a significant flexing of Russian strike capability or the likelihood of using a nuclear weapon,” the report said.

Read also: Russia Launched Medium-Range Ballistic Missiles, US Helped Ukraine Prepare – White House

As mentioned, Russian forces fire nuclear-capable Iskander ballistic missiles, Kinzhal hypersonic ballistic missiles, and nuclear-capable Kh-101 cruise missiles against Ukraine on a regular basis.

Previous Russian missile strikes have targeted industrial and critical infrastructure, including within Dnipro City, causing major damage.

The only fundamentally new feature of the November 21 Russian strikes on Dnipro City was the Oreshnik missile itself, which ostentatiously displayed re-entry vehicles to heighten the spectacle of the strike and further suggest a nuclear threat. ISW analysts noted that the West maintains credible deterrence capabilities and Putin’s nuclear rattle should not prevent Western officials from choosing to further aid Ukraine.

ISW analysts also believe that Putin’s November 21 statement shows that Moscow’s constant saber-rattling remains largely rhetorical. But Ukrainian forces have long struck what the Kremlin illegally defines as “Russian territory.” The Kremlin has illegally defined occupied Crimea as part of Russia since Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014. ISW experts also added that Ukrainian forces have routinely struck Crimea with US-supplied ATACMS and UK-sourced Storm Shadow missiles since April 2023.

ISW notes that the Kremlin’s application of its “red lines” rhetoric has been wildly inconsistent, undermining the overall Russian escalation narrative. Russian authorities have previously threatened severe retaliation if Western states provided Ukraine with rocket artillery, tanks, fighter jets and the ability to invade Russia, and Putin has consistently moved the goalposts whenever the West has called Putin’s bluff.

As Ukrinform reported, according to the Ukrainian Air Force, on the morning of November 21, the Russian army fired an intercontinental ballistic missile, a Kinzhal missile and seven Kh-101 cruise missiles at the city of Dnipro. Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile units intercepted and destroyed six Kh-101 missiles.

On Thursday the 21st, Russian President Vladimir Putin said the Russian army had struck the Dnipro with an Oreshnik medium-range ballistic missile, reportedly in response to the use of US and British long-range missiles by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

President Volodymyr Zelensky reacted to Vladimir Putin’s latest statement. The head of the Ukrainian state noted that by admitting the use of a new ballistic missile on the city of Dnipro, Putin expanded the scope of the war for the second time this year and violated the UN Charter.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine called Putin’s speech another proof and de facto admission of guilt in the crime of aggression against Ukraine.