Maharashtra, which has been extremely politically active in recent years, voted on November 20 for the new government. With the Maharashtra 2024 election results to be announced on Saturday (November 23), the project BJP-led Mahayuti alliance is winning exit polls in the state with 151 out of 288 assembly seats.

As the people of Maharashtra and the rest of India wait with bated breath to know who will lead the government in the state for the next five years, there are certain constituencies that have a history of accurately reflecting the political mood of voters in the state and therefore they are also called bellwether seats.

The parties that were elected and won in these four bellwether seats went on to form the government in Maharashtra that year

Bellwether seats in Maharashtra

In Maharashtra, there are four assembly seats which have been categorized as bellwether as they have correctly voted with the popular mandate in every state election since 1990.

Maharashtra Time Zones are – Andheri, Kandivali, Murbad and Pune Cantonment.

Brick bath

Among them, Murbad has been exceptional as it holds the record of gauging the mood in Maharashtra after state elections since 1952. It has also voted for a party that formed the government in the state after an assembly election.

In 2019, 77 percent of the total votes cast in Murbad were for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), while in 2014, 38 percent of the votes cast were for the BJP.

In 2009 and 2004, the maximum votes in Murbad were in favor of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the case was similar in 1999. In those years – 1999 and 2014 – the Congress-NCP coalition was in power.

From 1978 to 1990, Murbad had voted for the Congress candidate who stood in the election.

But in 1995, the Congress monopoly i
Maharashtra after the Shiv Sena-BJP coalition came to power. During the 1995 state assembly elections, Murbad felt the pulse and voted in majority for the BJP candidate – Vishe Digambar Narayan. It was the first time a non-Congress MLA won the seat.

Andheri

Until 2004, Andheri was just a single constituency before it was split into Andheri East and Andheri West.

Before the change, the Andheri constituency voted for the party or coalition that went on to form a government in the state.

In both 2014 and 2019, Andheri East voted for the Shiv Sena candidate, while Andheri West voted for the BJP.

Both these parties contested the 2014 Maharashtra Assembly elections separately but formed a government in alliance.

In 2009, both Andheri East and West voted for the Congress candidate contesting the seat.

From 1980-1990, Andheri voted for Congress candidates. It then gave the most votes to the Shiv Sena candidate in the 1995 elections.

From 1999 to 2004, it again voted for the Congress.

Kandivali

Kandivali 2019 and 2014 also voted for BJP. Before that, in the 1999, 2004 and 2009 Maharashtra Assembly polls, the Congress candidate, contesting the seat, got the most votes.

Pune Cantonment

In both 2014 and 2019, maximum voters in Pune Cantonment gave their vote to the BJP candidate.

Between 1999 and 2009, they voted for the Congress candidate contesting from the seat.

In 1995 Pune Cantonment voted the Shiv Sena candidate the most and in the election before that (1990) the most votes went to the Congress candidate.

Maharashtra Exit Poll 2024 Results

Polls gave Mahayuti an edge in Maharashtra with the alliance expected to win 151 out of 288 seats, easily surpassing the 145 majority mark.

The Congress-led Maha Vikas Aghadi, meanwhile, is projected to win 129 seats.

Pollster People’s Pulse has predicted an upper limit of 195 seats for the BJP-led alliance while suggesting that MVA may not be able to cross the 100 mark.

Matrize has predicted Mahayuti’s win with the alliance getting between 150 and 170 seats. It estimated that MVA would get 110-130 seats.

Dainik Bhaskar’s predictions suggest a neck-to-neck fight between the two alliances with the pollster predicting 125-140 seats for Mahayuti and 135-150 seats for MVA.