At a Liberal party meeting on Wednesday, Trudeau faced further displeasure from his caucus, some MPs urges him to decide by October 28 whether he will remain as leader. Trudeau responded that he would take time to reflect on their criticism. But less than twenty-four hours later, he announced his decision to stay. “As a party, we have always had strong discussions about the best way forward. We will continue to have them with me as a leader,” Trudeau stated.

Sources propose that Trudeau is planning a major cabinet reshuffle in the coming weeks, although it is unclear if this will ease tensions within his party. Meanwhile, the US election is being closely watched by Canada, as their results could affect Trudeau’s position, depending on who wins the White House.

Trudeau’s team is losing key players, with four federal ministers recently announces that they would not stand for re-election. All were first elected in 2015, when Trudeau swept in. IN totaltwenty-four Liberal MPs now intend to retire and seven others, including former ministers Marc Garneau, David Lametti and Carolyn Bennett, have resigned since the last election.

In the face of voter fatigue, Trudeau was longer weakened last month when the New Democratic Party (NDP) ended its 2022 deal to support his minority government in exchange for expanded social programs. This leaves Trudeau uncertain of surviving confidence votes in the House of Commons, where the Liberals hold just 154 of the 338 seats. If 170 opposition lawmakers vote against the Liberals, the government would fall before its term expires at the end of October 2025, forcing an early general election.

Trudeau recently survived for a second motion of no confidence raised by the conservatives. Poilievre, eager for election, leads by an average of 19 points nationwide, according to various poll collector. CBC’s poll tracker project Poilievre’s team would win 217 out of 343 seats if the election were held today, with the Liberals trailing far behind with just sixty-one seats. The Bloc Québécois is expected to win 39 seats, while the struggling NDP will have twenty-four.

After nearly a decade in power, winning a fourth consecutive election would require a dramatic change of pace for Trudeau. In 2015, he rode a wave of optimism and promised transformative change for Canada.

His government established gender equality in government, welcomed refugees – especially Syrians – and immigrants, legalized marijuana, launched a national childcare program and claimed to be setting the stage for an ambitious climate agenda. While many of these initiatives were initially noticed, by 2024 Canadians’ priorities have shifted.

Inflationthe the housing crisisand immigration is now the biggest concern. For the first time in twenty-five years, a majority of Canadians believe that the country is accepting too many immigrants. According to a new survey58 percent of Canadians think the immigration numbers are too high, a 14 point increase increase from last year. Between 2022 and 2023, there was an increase of 17 points, meaning that in two years the percentage of Canadians who agree with the statement “there is too much immigration in Canada” has more than doubled, from 27 per cent to 58 per cent. The last time public sentiment was this high was in 1998.

Poilievre has taken advantage of this change and boosted conservative support with his populist anti-establishment rhetoric. He has promised to eliminate carbon pricing, tackle the housing crisis, balance the budget and reduce crime, accusing the Liberals of having “destroyed” the immigration system.

Trudeau acknowledged the difficult times Canadians face in a interview on The Late Show with Stephen Colbert. “People are suffering. They’re having trouble shopping, paying their rent and filling up gas,” he said, adding gleefully that voters are considering “a change.” He specifically avoided mentioning that his own resignation is part of the shift in voters.

Although inflation has fallen from its peak of 8.1 percent in 2022 and the Bank of Canada is expected to cut interest rates to about 3 percent by mid-2025 — potentially easing grocery bills and mortgage payments — those improvements may not be enough to boost Trudeau’s prospects. Like many world leaders, he has suffered political consequences from the global pandemic.

Trudeau’s term has also been edged out scandals that damaged his public image and like many countries Canada is experiences political dealignment and witness the rise of right-wing and even far-right movements.

At a time of increased discontent among working people, the NDP is missing in action and the Conservatives are making inroads into what should be the NDP voting basiswhich further strengthens their challenge to the Liberals.

If Trudeau resigns, who could replace him at the head of the Canadian Liberals? One of the party’s biggest problems is the lack of a clear alternative. Several names have been circulating in Ottawa: Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland, Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly and former Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney, who recently became the party’s special advisor on economic growth. Carney has expressed interest to enter electoral politics but has not specified when or in what role. Former British Columbia Premier Christy Clark has too expressed interest in replacing Trudeau if he drops out.

However, none of these candidates seem to offer more appeal than Trudeau. A summer survey by the Angus Reid Institute revealed that a change of leadership would not significantly reduce the roughly 20-point gap with the Conservatives.

Then collapse of the deal with the New Democratic Party, the Liberal government could fall at any time within the next year. The Conservatives have already announced plans to table motions of no confidence in the House of Commons to trigger an early election. The Liberals will need the support of at least one other party in the House to survive these confidence votes and remain in power.

This instability leaves little room to start a real leadership race. This is partly why the Liberal caucus has not yet called for one. “We know we don’t have time for that” said a liberal source.

Liberal MPs recognize voter fatigue is nothing new in Canada. In 2015, voters were tired of Stephen Harper, the Conservative prime minister who was interrupted by Trudeau. Similarly, another former prime minister, Brian Mulroney, left office after his approval ratings fell beyond repair. Only two prime ministers in Canadian history have won four consecutive elections.

In addition to the challenges of having to organize a leadership race, the party would have very little time to present its new leader to the public before the next scheduled vote on October 20, 2025 – or earlier, if elections were called earlier. Although Canada traditionally avoids holding elections in the winter because of the weather, some analysts believe that, given the current uncertainty, everything is possible. Perhaps the only thing colder than a Canadian winter is the reception Trudeau will receive if he tries for a fourth term.