A new USC study found that Los Angeles County residents view homelessness as a serious problem, listing mental illness, substance abuse, the high cost of housing and financial pressure as the top four factors.

Proponents of Measure A on the Nov. 5 ballot — a one-half percent (0.50%) LA County sales tax on homeless services that doubles the current tax — see the USC data as an indication of voter support. But that remains to be seen.

A poll conducted between September 25 and October 1 by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies and co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times found that nearly 50% supported the measure. The survey had a margin of error of 3%.

The Measure a campaign says their blitz of ads on YouTube and TV screens, as well as phone banking — mostly happening after the UC Berkeley survey was taken — is moving the needle toward passage. The measure needs a majority to pass.

“All the polls show that voters support Measure A, and more are moving our way when they hear it will stop a 25 percent increase in homelessness and move people from tents to mental health care,” said Sarah Dusseault, Treasurer and Counsel for Measure A. campaign, in an email response on Friday, October 25.

The campaign has reached 6 million people on YouTube and produced 46 million ad impressions. Dusseault said the campaign has persuaded 200,000 potential voters to support Measure A.

“We think we’re doing really well,” she added. The campaign did not offer specific polling information, other than to say the UC Berkeley poll was conducted before their campaign blitz.

If Measure A passes, the cost to middle-class families is estimated at $5 per month and $2 per month for low-income families, according to the Measure A campaign.

What would that do?

Measure A would impose a half percent sales tax and make it permanent. It would also repeal Measure H, the one-quarter percent (0.25%) county sales tax that currently funds programs to reduce and prevent homelessness. Measure H was passed by 69.3% of voters in the county in 2017 and expires in 2027.

Measure A would raise about $1.1 billion in the first year, according to a financial analysis by Oscar Valdez, the county’s auditor-controller.

Funds raised would be distributed as follows:

• 61.25% to LA County for homeless services

• 35.75% to the LA County Affordable Housing Solutions Agency (LACAHSA) for affordable housing and prevention

• 3% to LA County Development Authority for local housing production

Arguments: pro, con

The Yes on A campaign emphasizes what would happen after Measure H expires and there is no funding to replace it.

New data released by the county executive says more than 57,400 people in shelters or permanent housing could end up back on the streets if Measure A fails. The funding cut would result in a 28% increase in homeless homeless across the county, the CEO’s office said.

Of the eight regions reviewed by the county executive, the San Fernando Valley would see the third largest impact, with an estimated 8,093 people returning to the streets. Central Los Angeles was the highest, followed by South Los Angeles as the second highest.

The permanent funding would allow the county, its 200 nonprofit service provider partners and cities to continue providing temporary and permanent housing and increase mental health and substance abuse services. The measure would also spend money on build affordable housing and to provide subsidies to those at risk of homelessness, according to the campaign.

“Measure A ensures continuity of critical services like mental health and substance abuse treatment, and helps us reach our most vulnerable neighbors,” said Stephanie Klasky-Gamer, president and CEO of LA Family Housing. The group is based in the San Fernando Valley.

Measure A is supported by Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass and Los Angeles County Sheriff Robert Luna. It also has endorsements from 150 or more organizations, including the Los Angeles Business Council, the Central City Association, the Hospital Association of Southern California and the Greater LA African American Chamber of Commerce.

Opposition comes from the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association and other opponents who argue that county residents cannot afford the quarter-percent tax increase and that the sales tax is already over 10% in many areas.

Opponents also say Measure H hasn’t worked and don’t agree with pouring more dollars into a haphazard system.

“To date, we have seen no detailed plan for how to address the homeless situation that plagues our city and county,” said Jack Humphreville, a columnist and taxpayer advocate for the Greater Wilshire Neighborhood Council whose name appears on the ballot argument. a “no” vote.

The county registered 75,312 homeless people from the January 2024 homeless count. This is almost the same as the 75,518 people registered in 2023 and welcome news after homelessness increased by 9.1% between the 2022 and 2023 homeless numbers. The number of people living in shelters increased by 12.7%.

The county manager’s report says the county has worked with cities and other agencies since Measure H was passed in 2017. The county manager’s report states:

• Overall, the county and its partners have placed 119,433 people in permanent housing. Of these, 44,129 were housed with measure H funds. • About 157,141 were placed in interim accommodation; of these 82,966 with measure H funds.• About 37,920 people were prevented from ending up in homelessness, including 10,651 who were kept in their accommodation with measure H funds.

More flexible, responsible

The new measure is more focused, flexible and accountable, Dusseault said. The measure sets goals for protecting the homeless and for access to mental health care. It allows the county to change funding formulas to accommodate a program that is working but needs additional funds, she said.

A new area supports rental assistance programs that help people stay in their homes. County statistics say that for every 100 people who get housing, 125 more end up homeless, exacerbating the problem.

One example is Brilliant Corners, a nonprofit housing provider that executes multifamily master leases at well below market rates, Dusseault said.

Potential voters contacted by the campaign have said they want to see more accountability this time around. Dusseault said Measure A dollars will be reviewed annually and will be overseen by a centralized commission.

“They like this measure because it has a combination of strategies,” Dusseault said. “This measure puts funding in place for homeless services and for prevention, as well as creating and preserving affordable housing.”

Many of those contacted by the campaign said they were concerned that homeless individuals were clogging up hospital emergency rooms.

The opposition argument on the ballot refers to the fact that Measure H goes down, while this measure does not. The “No” argument signatories object to a permanent tax to reduce homelessness.

“We haven’t heard that from the voters,” Dusseault said. “The voters said show me where you’ve added accountability and how you can change based on results.”