• A forced sale of Chrome could impact the browser, search, advertising and privacy industries in major ways.

• In addition to the effect on Google’s bottom line, the real outcome depends a lot on which group would buy Chrome.

• Since Chrome is simply a skinned version of the open source Chromium browser, it can be much ado about nothing.

The Justice Department’s request to force Google to download the Chrome browser has the tech world buzzing. Just imagine how weird it would feel to call it “Amazon Chrome”. While any real consequences for anti-competitive behavior are, realistically, months or years away, professionals like AdGuard co-founder and CTO Andrey Meshkov have already begun mapping the potential industry-wide effects of such a change.

We caught up with Meshkov briefly and came away with some insightful, wide-ranging, and slightly insulting comments about what Chrome sales could mean for the industry at large. It’s hard to say what the granular results would be, but the tide could easily shift in a couple of specific directions.

How Google offloads Chrome could affect the industry

More industries than one, for that matter

Meshkov offered several broad perspectives on the real-world effects of the potential move. To his credit, he didn’t claim to know the future, or point to results with explicit effects on any particular company. These are the four most prominent areas where a non-Google Chrome browser can wreak havoc.

Browser market fragmentation

The most obvious change would be an opportunity for new browsers to appear. Again, nothing is stopping them from appearing now, other than the inertia that prevents the average user from switching browsers in the first place.

Ad Network Competition

Chrome is probably worth around $20 billion Google. Its search, data collection, and ad sales efforts tie directly to its browser, clearly fueling decisions like the adoption of the Manifest V3 extension rules that block many ad blockers. In addition to removing Chrome from the Alphabet, Inc. portfolio, the court’s proposed ruling would “require Google to provide competitors and potential competitors with both user-page and ad data at no charge and on a non-discriminatory basis for a period of ten years.”

This could have a massive effect on Google’s revenue stream as it drives services and their users away from the long-time search leader, in search of greener pastures. Meshkov then pointed out how much Chrome’s acquiring party meant. A software-focused startup could lead to more favorable competition, but if Amazon buys it, what was all that for?

Search engine landscape

Remember Internet Explorer? It wasn’t just packaged with Windows, it was an integral part of critical system services, and removing it entirely could break important functionality. Chrome isn’t quite as mission-critical as Android, but its contractual inclusion gives the Big G a direct, easy path to data collection.

Google May forced to stop paying for the position as the default search engine, which would somewhat reduce revenue for outfits like Mozilla. Such a result may also contribute to the emergence of additional search engines, some of which are getting ready for this may not collect every click you make and sell the combined information to advertisers. Meshkov again pointed out, “With the removal of these exclusion agreements, the market may see intense competition, but this may also lead to an unpredictable landscape where new players emerge, but also where some entrenched monopolies may benefit from the chaos.”

Impact on ad blockers

It’s not just Manifest V3. If Google distanced itself from Chrome, it could lead to very different forks, or entirely new browser bases, which would fragment app development on different platforms. Fewer resources to focus on the addition of an overwhelmingly dominant browser may well make ads more resilient to common blocking techniques.

The upside is that cross-platform ad and tracking protection suites would greatly benefit from a more diverse browser market. While most such extensions are currently focused on Chromium-based portals, an expanded selection would give consumers the freedom to choose the organizations and developers they trust. Of course, that assumes that consumers actually care.

How would a Chrome sale really change things?

Maybe a lot, but maybe very little

Meshkov raised many excellent points in his commentary, largely by issuing broadly applicable and reasonably likely scenarios. But the wheels of justice turn slowly, so we’ll all have plenty of opportunities to watch this play out in slow motion. However, the more jaded in the tech world have already come to an incredible conclusion. That’s a conclusion the Justice Department has yet to address, and may not even understand.

The Google Chrome browser is simply a shell applied to the Chromium browser that includes Google-specific telemetry and other requirements. It’s almost certainly not worth $20 billion to anyone but Google, because without access to the same data collection pipeline, ad sales operations, and Android contractual obligations, Chrome has similar value to Kiwi Browser, Vivaldi, and all other Chromium-based platforms. The court cannot force the open source community to download the Chromium project, so this may be in vain.