Core inflation in Japan’s capital falls in October
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Core inflation in Japan’s capital falls in October

TOKYO — Core inflation in the Japanese capital in October fell below the central bank’s 2 percent target for the first time in five months, data showed on Friday, potentially complicating the central bank’s push to raise interest rates further.

Closely watched services inflation this month also eased, casting doubt on the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) expectations that higher wages would broaden cost pressures beyond goods and keep price increases durably around its 2 percent target.

“To the BoJ’s disappointment, price increases reflecting rising labor costs in the services sector are not spreading, which could be a warning signal for its price outlook,” said Saisuke Sakai, senior economist at Mizuho Research & Technologies.

Tokyo’s core consumer price index, which excludes volatile fresh food costs, rose 1.8 percent in October from a year earlier, slowing from a 2 percent gain in September but beating a median market forecast of 1.7 percent.

A separate “core-core” index that strips out the effects of both fresh food and fuel costs, closely watched by the BoJ as a broader price trend indicator, rose 1.8 percent in October from a year earlier after rising 1.6 percent in September .

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The Tokyo inflation figures are considered a leading indicator of nationwide trends and among factors the BoJ will review at next week’s policy meeting when the board releases new quarterly growth and price forecasts.

Some temporary factors affected the month’s inflation data, with the government’s resumption of subsidies to curb electricity bills pushing down core inflation while rice shortages pushed up the core index.

Takeshi Minami, chief economist at the Norinchukin Research Institute, said the latest data would not derail the BoJ’s normalization policy.

“We continue to expect that the BoJ will at least discuss another rate hike in December,” he said. The latest data showed non-public sector service prices rose 1.1 percent year-on-year in October, slower than a 1.2 percent increase in September.

Japanese companies usually conduct semi-annual price revisions for goods and services in October. This means that services inflation for the month is a closely watched indicator for clues as to whether demand-driven price gains are widening enough to warrant further rate hikes.

“This suggests that companies in the service sector remain cautious about the outlook for consumption,” Norinchukin’s Minami said. “Consumption is not yet strong enough to allow them to pass on rising labor costs, despite the BoJ’s expectations of gradual increases in service prices.”

Separate data showed on Friday that the prices Japanese companies charge each other for services, another gauge of service-sector inflation, rose 2.6 percent in September from a year earlier, slowing from a revised 2.8 percent increase in August .

BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has said the bank will continue to raise interest rates if inflation remains on track to steadily reach the 2 percent it forecasts.

A narrow majority of economists polled by Reuters saw the BoJ refraining from a hike this year, with most expecting the central bank to raise rates again next March.