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Overall, he has hit two home runs in this stretch, and he has seven different hits with an exit velocity of 100-plus MPH, not including another that had an exit velocity of exactly 99.99 mph.

At the rate he’s been crushing the ball lately, he makes a good choice to hit a home run, and there are no concerns with Gerrit Cole on the mound for the Yankees, either.

Cole is not a pitcher we would classify as a home run pitcher, but he has not been his dominant self this season, and that has continued into the playoffs.

His 3.31 playoff ERA doesn’t look bad, but he has an xFIP of 5.39 and SIERA of 5.02 in those three starts, suggesting he’s been lucky to have such a low ERA.

Look for Muncy to stay warm in this one.

Max Muncy home run (+380): 0.25 units

Jack Flaherty o2.5 Earned Runs (-110) DK

Flaherty is another pitcher who has really struggled this postseason, but unlike Cole, he hasn’t had any luck limiting his ERA.

He has three starts in these playoffs, and he’s been shaky in two of them, with an overall ERA of 7.04.

His projected numbers also look bad, so this isn’t a fluke. Flaherty’s FIP is 6.23, his xFIP is 5.86 and his SIERA is 5.51.

Flaherty had a solid regular season, but his stuff+, which is a FanGraphs stat that measures a pitcher’s “stuff,” shows a below-average pitcher overall.

Essentially, this stat looks at the speed, movement, and spin rate of each pitch type individually and grades that pitch. The only pitch that was above average was Flaherty’s knuckle curve, and that was by the slimmest of margins.

A score of 100 is considered average, with anything over 100 considered above average, and Flaherty’s knuckle curve was rated 101 – the lowest possible score while still being above average.

Overall, Flaherty’s stuff+ graded 94, which was the 18th lowest among all qualified starting pitchers.

While the Yankees lineup has done much of its damage late in games against bullpens this postseason, they should be able to get to Flaherty.

Jack Flaherty o2.5 Earned Runs (-110):

Juan Soto Home Run (+400) FanDuel

Along with Muncy, we like another lefty, Juan Soto, to take the farm on Friday night. Soto gets the benefit of going up against a struggling pitcher in Flaherty, as previously described.

One stat intentionally left out in the previous write-up was Flaherty’s postseason HR/9 of 1.76, which would have been the worst HR/9 of any qualified pitcher in the regular season.

Since Oct. 9, which includes the final two games of the Royals series and all five games of the Guardians series, Soto has an absurd 24 percent slugging rate and 72.73 percent HardHit rate, with an average exit velocity of 101.4 and a .400 ISO speed.

In those seven games, Soto has hit 14 (!) balls with an exit velocity over 100 mph, including four in the last game alone. Soto had five at-bats in NY’s series-clinching Game 5 win over the Guardians on Oct. 19, and four of them went like this:

• 101 mph off the bat
• 107.9 mph exit velocity (single)
• 109.7 mph, 402-foot home run
• 114.3 mph exit velocity (double)

While Giancarlo Stanton has stolen the headlines, Soto has arguably been just as hot, and he gets significantly better odds to hit a home run in this game.

Juan Soto home run (+400): 0.25 units

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