Japan’s voters could end more than a decade of Liberal Democratic Party dominance on Sunday, forcing the ruling party into power-sharing deals that could undermine the country’s leadership.

The general election, nine days before the United States chooses a new president, adds uncertainty to an already turbulent geopolitical landscape as Tokyo’s government faces growing tensions with neighboring China and inflation squeezes Japanese households.

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s conservative LDP, in government for most of the postwar period, has held a majority in the lower house of parliament since 2012, ruling in coalition with the Komeito, on which it depends to control the less powerful upper house.

But discontent over an LDP political funding scandal and rising costs of living in the world’s fourth-largest economy threaten the ruling party.

“Public anger has not subsided. The election will be very close for the LDP,” said Tomoaki Iwai, professor emeritus at Nihon University and an expert on money in politics.

An Asahi newspaper poll on Monday suggested the party could lose as many as 50 of its 247 seats in the lower house and Komeito could drop to fewer than 30, putting the coalition short of the 233 needed for a majority.

The LDP will easily remain the largest force in parliament, but many votes could go to the number two party, the opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, which ousted the LDP in 2009. The CDPJ could win 140 seats, Asahi estimated.

If the LDP needs to rely on Komeito to form a government, it would give the junior partner more influence.

Komeito, affiliated with Japan’s largest Buddhist lay organization, has been reluctant to support decisions it sees as a step away from Japan’s postwar pacifism, such as acquiring the longer-range weapons the LDP claims are needed to deter China from starting a war in East Asia.

POSSIBLE COALITION WRITING

If the coalition loses its majority, the LDP would need the support of at least one other party, further impeding Ishiba in politics and possibly complicating the Bank of Japan’s efforts to unwind decades of monetary stimulus.

Potential partners include the Democratic People’s Party (DPP), which had seven lower house lawmakers entering the election advocating lower taxes, and the conservative Japan Innovation Party, which is defending 44 seats with a promise of tougher donation rules to clean up politics.

“A coalition with the DPP could happen, but the challenge would be to reconcile their push for tax cuts,” said Masafumi Fujiwara, an associate professor at the University of Yamanashi.

The DPP wants to cut Japan’s 10% national sales tax in half and cut income tax, policies not supported by the LDP.

DPP party chief Yuichiro Tamaki has so far rejected the idea of ​​working with an LDP-led coalition. Innovation Party chief Nobuyuki Baba has not ruled out a partnership.

One option for Ishiba could be to reinstate lawmakers ousted from the LDP because of the scandal who are running as independents in constituencies where the party does not field candidates.

“Several of these dubious candidates are expected to win, and by officially endorsing them, the LDP can narrowly secure a single-party majority,” said Tadashi Mori, a professor of political science at Aichi Gakuin University.

But this would be risky for Ishiba. The scandal over undeclared donations at fundraisers is a factor weighing on most voters, according to the Asahi poll.

Fumio Kishida resigned as prime minister last month over the scandal, although he was not involved. Ishiba, hoping to seize the change and consolidate the LDP’s grip on power, immediately called a snap election, but his popularity and the LDP’s prospects have plummeted since taking office on October 1.

Support for his cabinet fell to 41% from 44% in a week, according to a poll published by public broadcaster NHK on Monday.

If the LDP cannot form a governing coalition, the center-left CDPJ could try to cobble together an administration from a patchwork of opposition parties. The party, led by former prime minister Yoshihiko Noda, has ruled out forming a coalition with the LDP.

“It would be very challenging to see the CDPJ form a government with the other opposition parties, just given how different their political views are,” said Rintaro Nishimura, associate at Asia Group Japan consultancy. “Political instability will actually come in regardless of who wins.”